宏观经济33_4E剖析.ppt

Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Short-Run Economic Fluctuations Economic activity fluctuates from year to year. In most years production of goods and services rises. On average over the past 50 years, production in the U.S. economy has grown by about 3 percent per year. In some years normal growth does not occur, indicating a recession. Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Short-Run Economic Fluctuations A recession is a period of declining real incomes, and rising unemployment. A depression is a severe recession. THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS Economic fluctuations are irregular and unpredictable. Fluctuations in the economy are often called the business cycle. These fluctuations do not follow regular or easily predictable patterns. Figure 1 A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate together. Most macroeconomic variables that measure some type of income or production fluctuate closely together. Although many macroeconomic variables fluctuate together, they fluctuate by different amounts. Figure 1 A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS As output falls, unemployment rises. Changes in real GDP are inversely related to changes in the unemployment rate. During times of recession, unemployment rises substantially. Figure 1 A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations EXPLAINING SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS The Assumptions of Classical Economics Most economists believe that classical theory describes the world in the long run but not in the short run. Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables in the long run. The assumption of monetary neutrality is not appropriate when studying year-to-year changes in the economy. EXPLAINING SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS Most economists believe that classical theory describes the world in the long run but not in the short run. EXPLAINING SHORT-RUN EC