电力系统短期发电规划解说.docVIP

本科毕业设计论文 电力系统短期发电计划制定 学 生 姓 名： 任书燕 班 级： 电自079 学 号： 0709290104 指 导 教 师： 孙银锋 所 在 单 位： 东北电力大学 答 辩 日 期： 2011年6月21日 摘 要 随着电力生产和消费日益市场化，电力系统负荷预测越来越引起人们的关注。针对短期负荷预测，我们采用基于温度准则的外推法。首先，根据历史的负荷数据得出预测日的负荷变化系数，根据历史的温度数据得出预测日的最高和最低温度；其次，由历史的负荷数据和温度数据通过最小二乘法得出负荷与温度间的相关系数；然后，在此基础上计算出预测日的最大与最小负荷，最后结合相应的日负荷变化系数，求出预测日的各时间点负荷预测值。负荷预测完之后，要确定各预测日每个时段的机组投入情况。先根据排序得出26台机组的投入顺序，然后计算出各预测日各个时段的负荷之和，在此基础上结合各机组的最大最小出力限制初步确定出各预测日各个时段的机组组合情况。紧接着进行校验，验证每日各个机组的投入和停运是否满足最小连续运行时间和最小连续停运时间。如果不满足，相应的投切机组，进行调整直至满足为止。在这之后建立二次规划模型进行负荷分配，利用MATLAB软件编程，运行得出各预测日各个时段每个机组的出力。出力结果出来之后，引入PSAT仿真软件进行潮流计算。 关键词：短期负荷预测；机组组合；负荷分配；二次规划；潮流计算 Abstract As the electric power production and consumption are becoming increasingly marketization ,people pay more and more attention to power system load forecast.In terms of short-term load forecasting, we adopt the extrapolation method which is based on temperature standards.Firstly, we should predict the daily load variation coefficient according to the historic load data,and predict the maximum and minimum temperature according to the historical temperature data. Secondly, we should take the least square method to work out the related coefficient between load and temperature on account of the historical load data and temperature data.Then, on the basis of the forecast, we can calculate the maximum and minimum load.Finally,based on the corresponding daily load variation coefficient,we can find out the load predictive value at different time points . After finishing the load forecast, we should work out the unit devoted circumstance of every time.At the first,we get the devoted order of 26 units based on the sort of , and then calculate the sum of load during each time. On account of the maximum and minimum output of every unit,we can work out the unit devoted circumstance of every time. Then check each unit, and verify whether its input and outage meet the minuimum continuous operation time and minimum continous outage time.If it dont meet the req