第四章决策解答.ppt

It’s necessary, therefore, to allocate weights to the items listed in step 2 in order to give them their relative priority in the decision (step 3). Then the decision maker lists the alternatives that could succeed in resolving the problem (step 4). Once the alternatives have been identified, the decision maker must critically analyze each one (step 5). The decision-making process begins with the identification of a problem (step 1) or, more specifically, a discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs. Once a manager has identified a problem that needs attention, the decision criteria that will be important in solving the problem must be identified (step 2). When managers make decisions, they not only use their own particular style, but may use “rules of thumb” or heuristics, to simplify their decision making.7 Rules of thumb can be useful because they help make sense of complex, uncertain, and ambiguous information. Even though managers may use rules of thumb, that doesn’t mean those rules are reliable We assume that managers’ decision making will be rational; that is, they’ll make logical and consistent choices to maximize value. After all, managers have all sorts of tools and techniques to help them be rational decision makers A rational decision maker would be fully objective and logical. The problem faced would be clear and unambiguous, and the decision maker would have a clear and specific goal and know all possible alternatives and consequences. Finally, making decisions rationally would consistently lead to selecting the alternative that maximizes the likelihood of achieving that goal A more realistic approach to describing how managers make decisions is the concept of bounded rationality, which says that managers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information.14 Because they can’t possibly analyze all information on all alternatives, managers satisfice, rather than maximize. That is, they a