模糊影响图论文：基模糊影响图的电网项目工程造价风险评估.docVIP

模糊影响图论文：基于模糊影响图的电网项目工程造价风险评估 【中文摘要】分析了国内外电网项目工程造价风险评估现状,并指出了传统的电网项目工程造价风险评估方法的不足。从风险的定义、要素、特点和度量方法出发,归纳总结了风险管理的流程。运用德尔菲法得出影响电网项目工程造价的风险因素。简单的阐述了传统的风险评估方法,如层次分析法、因子分析法、灰关联分析法、模糊综合评价方法和蒙特卡洛方法。重点介绍了基于模糊集合理论和影响图理论的模糊影响图方法,并给出了模糊影响图评估方法的数学思想。鉴于风险分析中某些事件发生概率和关系概率两个重要参数确定时需借助专家主观判断,将模糊影响图理论运用到电网项目工程造价风险评估中,介绍了其基本原理和评估方法,建立了电网项目工程造价风险评估模型,并结合实例进行了评估。该方法成功地应用到电网项目工程造价风险分析中。虽然仅给出了该方法在电网项目工程风险评估中的应用,但其具有更广泛应用价值。模糊影响图方法既能克服传统风险分析方法建模上的缺陷,又能克服工程背景下影响图结构中概率获取上的困难,是一种有较大应用前景的工程项目造价风险评估方法。考虑到工程项阶段性以及资金的时间价值,对于多阶段、具有超价值节点的模糊影响图方法尚有待于进一步研究。 【英文摘要】The status of construction cost of power grid project is analyzed at home and abroad. Points out the shortages of traditional assessment methods of construction costs risk of power grid project. According to the definition, factors, characteristics and measuring methods of risks, summarizes the risk management process. Influencing factors of risks of construction costs of power grid project are got. Brief introduction of the traditional risk assessment methods, such as analytic hierarchy process, factors analysis, grey correlation analytical method, fuzzy comprehensive evolution method, and Monte Carlo method. Mainly introduces fuzzy influence diagram (FID) method based on fuzzy set theory and influence diagram theory, and presents the mathematical thinking of FID.Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into FID to evaluate construction costs risk of power grid project, and the basic principles and evaluation method of FID were presented. An application of the presented method for evaluation of construction costs risk of power grid project. The method can be widely applicable although only power grid project is analyzed.FID method not only can overcome the shortage of the traditional methods, but also overcome the difficulties of getting probability in engineering background. FID is a larger application prospect in assessment