安徽亳州地区大雾预报模型研究.doc

[标签:标题] 2016 PAGE11 / NUMPAGES11 感谢观看本文谢谢 安徽亳州地区大雾预报模型研究 摘 要：该文根据2002-2012年亳州地区大雾资料，统计了大雾的时空分布特征和环流形势。结果表明：年平均大雾日数最多的地区集中在亳州中北部，东南部最少。近11a来大雾日数总体上呈减少趋势，但2010年后雾日有所增加，其中水平能见度在50～200m的浓雾出现频次最多。雾日有明显的季节变化，冬季最多、秋季次之、夏季最少；大雾持续时间大多在1～14h。根据2013年亳州市探空观测、地面观测资料以及EC细网格、T639、日本细网格、GRAPES数值模式产品，选取了87种预报因子，使用支持向量机方法和中国气象局CMSVM应用软件平台，通过对训练样本进行交叉验证和模型核参数的逐渐逼近，建立了亳州市24h大雾支持向量机预报模型。 　　关键词：大雾；时空特征；预报模型；亳州 　　中图分类号 P426.4；P457.7 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-773101-81-04 　　Research on the Fog Forecast Model in Bozhou Area 　　Huang Liping1 et al. 　　 　　Abstract：In this paper，the temporal and spatial characteristics of fog and the atmospheric circulation were analyzed by using the fog data in Bozhou from year 2002 to 2012. The results showed that，the most of the annual average fog areas were concentrated in the north and central of Bozhou，and the southeast area was the least. Generally，the fog days decreased in the past 11 years，but it increased after 2010 year. The frequency of the visibility from 50 to 200 meters had the maximum occurrence. The fog days had significant seasonal variation characteristics，that the winter maximum，autumn second，and summer minimum. The fog mostly lasted 1 to 14 hours. According to the radiosonde data，observation data and EC fine mesh，T639，Japan fine mesh，GRAPES numerical model products of Bozhou City in year 2013，87 predictors were selected. By using Support Vector Machinesand CMSVM application software platform，and through the cross-validation of the training samples and gradually approaching model nuclear parameters，the 24 hour forecasting model of fog by Support Vector Machine in Bozhou was established. 　　Key words：Fog；Temporal and spatial characteristics；Prediction model；Bozhou area 　　雾是指大量微小的水滴悬浮于空中，使得水平能见度低于1km的天气现象。根据水平能见度可将雾分为4类：雾、大雾、浓雾和强浓雾。大雾天气是安徽淮北地区秋冬季常见的灾害性天气现象之一，频繁出现的大雾天气不仅会对交通、航运等造成严重影响，而且其伴随的稳定层结大气使城市污染加重，给经济建设和人民生活带来重大损失。随着城市规模的不断扩大，雾、霾及其两者的结合物已成为城市发展过程中影响城市环境的重要因素，因此开展亳州市大雾的客观预报方法研究具有十分重要的意义。目前雾的预报已经成为一项常规预报项目，预报方法多采用经验法和外推法，但预报主观性较