漳卫河流域洪水预报模型和水利工程调控影响问题研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 漳卫河所属的海河流域在我国政治、经济、文化领域占有重要地位，也是我 国水旱灾害十分严重的地区，所以，洪水预报工作显得尤为重要。 本文介绍了以 EasyDHM 分布式水文模型为基础的洪水预报模型，并在此基 础上增加了考虑气象因素的数值预报和考虑下垫面变化情况的坡洼、水库、引水 口门对预报结果的干预功能。根据实际情况对原有 EasyDHM 作出了改进，为漳 卫河流域洪水预报提供了有力的依据。 （1）根据漳卫河流域站点、水系、气象、地形、土壤等情况建立了漳卫河 流域分布式水文模型，并根据历史洪水进行了参数率定，结果表明，EasyDHM 分布式水文模型在漳卫河地区具有较好的适应性，可以支持洪水预报工作。 （2）使用率定整理后的参数，进行历史洪水模拟验证和实时洪水的预报， 将实时洪水预报结果与考虑数值预报的结果对比分析，表明数值预报可以作为降 雨输入。 （3）将漳卫河流域的大小水库分别考虑，大水库作为可控流量的点，中小 水库以及蓄滞洪区按照坡洼考虑，并根据实际情况，增设了引水口门，用来控制 径流量，结果表明，这些措施一定程度上反映了下垫面变化对洪水预报的影响。 关键词：水文模型；洪水预报；漳卫河；坡洼；引水 ABSTRACT The Haihe River Basin,including a substream named Zhangwei River Basin,occupies an important position in the field of politics, economy and culture in China.At the same time,it is very serious with inundation and drought in China.So,the flood forecasting work is particularly important. This paper introduces a distributed hydrological model based flood forecasting model – EasyDHM. On the basis of it,the numerical forecasting considering meteorological factors and an intervention function including slope-bottom land, reservoir, irrigating gate doors considering the change of the underlying surface have been used.It also makes an improvement according to the actual situation of the original moder EasyDHM, to get a basis for the flood forecasting in Zhangwei River Basin.Here are some works in this paper: First, according to the sites,water system,weather,terrain,soil and so on in Zhangwei River Basin , the distributed flood forecasting model was made,and parameters were calibrated.The results show that the distributed hydrological model EasyDHM in Zhangwei River Basin has a good adaptability, and it can support the flood forecasting work. Second,with the calibrated parameters,the historical flood forecasting was verifie