地区产业结构和经济增长关系研究——以四川省为例.pdfVIP

万 方 数 据 I摘要 现代经济增长方式本质上是以产业结构变化为核心的经济增长，合理化、高 级化的产业结构可以使资源得到优化配置，促进经济快速增长。四川省在西部经 济发展中起着重要的作用，目前四川省产业结构与经济增长关系研究的定量分析 还较少。因此，对四川省产业结构与经济增长关系进行研究具有一定的理论和现 实意义。 本文在梳理国内外文献的基础上，首先对四川省产业结构的变化及现状进行 了定性分析；然后利用 VAR模型和格兰杰因果检验对四川省产业结构与经济增 长的关系进行实证分析，得出了四川省产业结构与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的 均衡关系的结论；与此同时运用脉冲响应函数分析发现产业结构对经济增长的影 响具有合理的滞后性；最后通过建立回归模型分析了四川省三次产业对经济增长 的贡献率及三次产业影响经济增长的方式，分析结果显示目前第二产业对四川省 经济增长的拉动作用最大，其次是第三、一产业，同时三次产业影响经济增长的 方式不同。虽然四川省经济增长较快，但其劳动结构变化严重滞后于经济总量增 长的要求，通过调整、优化产业结构从而促进经济增长的产业政策对四川省具有 积极效应。 关键词：产业结构；经济增长；产值比重；劳动结构；格兰杰因果关系检验 万方数据 II Abstract The key feature of modern economic growth is industrial structure transformation which optimizes allocation of resources to boost economy. Located in the western China, Sichuan Province plays an essential role in the economic development of Western China. Therefore, the theoretical and practical significance stands out, as quantitative studies on the relationship between its industrial structure and economic growth is rare. After reviewing the relevant literature on this subject, we qualitatively analyzed the status of industrial structure in Sichuan. The thesis qualitatively analyzed the present situation and the change of industrial structure of Sichuan province on the basis of the literature at home and abroad; and then using VAR model and granger causality test on the relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth of Sichuan province for empirical analysis, we can get the conclusion that there exists a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth of Sichuan province; And we can find that the impact of the industrial structure on economic growth lag exists in reasonable range by using impulse response function analysis; Analyzing the contribution of Thrice Industries of Sichuan province on economic growth and affecting economic growth mode by regression model, the results show that currently in Sichuan the secondary industry contributes most to the economic growth, f