项目投资决策的分析.pdfVIP

传统项目投资决策方法中最优的方法。 第二部分，在分析净现值法所存在的缺陷的基础上，论证了引入 期权方法的必要性。从介绍期权原理、期权资产定价模型出发，着重 分析投资项目中的管理期权，并将期权方法与净现值法进行了比较， 说明期权方法是对净现值法的改良。 第三部分，对天华公司大化肥技改项目进行实证分析。利用传统 分析方法所得出的结论是该技改项目没有投资价值。但该技改项目的 实施，客观上带来了追加投资的机会，即该项目包含有扩张的期权。 期权方法表明：虽然技改项目本身净现值为负，但在考虑其所具育的 期权价值之后，项目是具有投资价值的，因而应进行投资。 第四部分，探讨实施期权方法需要解决的问题。分析了实施期权 方法的难点：一是期权隐匿于项目之中，因而给决策者提出了要善于 发现期权的要求；二是期权定价模型本身是很复杂的。在此基础上， 提出推广应用期权方法的具体对策。 关键词：项目投资 期权方法 Abstract During founding and development of most of the productive enterprises，the issue of project investment will be normally touched upon．However，since people usually do not attach great importance to the decision analysis of a projeet investment，or even though they do SO， it often causes great loss to the enterprise due to improper selection of the decision analysis methods．Moreover，with the development in economy and the unceasing improvement to management，the intrinsic inadequacy of the h-aditional decision analysis methods for a project investment has been gradually exposed，leading to many problems demanding prompt solution．Therefore，when the author is writing the graduation thesis on MBA，he makes all attempt to study and approach the subject of the decision analysis methods for a project investment by applying the major theoretical knowledge he has ever learned，linking wit}1 the personal experience gained from the financial affairs management work by himself and trying to combine the theory with practice． If by using the‘traditional＆eisidn investment．once a plan、has b汹； 镦aaysts methods‘for a project -it Wiltmake no any changes to the future’S actions，which will lead tO lack of flexibility in management． But，as a matter of fact，due to the uncertainty of the real economic environment itself,it makes many investment projects showing up the four features below： ·Irreversibility ● ● Uncertainty ofthe future profit Time flexibility of a project execution ·Various kinds ofrights of selection carl be obtained after investment For a project with the above four features，when the