我国居民收入不确定性测算与成因分析.pdfVIP

MEASUREMENTANDANALYSIS0F THECAUSESOFRESIDENTS’INCOME UNCERTAINTYINCHlNA ABSTRACT Sincereformand economictransform opening—up，China’Ssystem fromthetraditional economic tosocialistmarket planned system economic the systemprofoundly．Duringperiod，aspecialphenomenon has inChina’S thatincomeand are at happened economy savingsrising is scholarsbelievethat highspeed．whenconsumptionreducing．Many income isthemaincauseofthis uncertainty special are uncertainfactorsinthe of asthe reform，such many process of ofthemarketandthe uncertaintysystem，theuncertainty uncertainty causedthelimited oftheeconomicindividuals．Andthe by rationality toresidentscreatedtheseuncertaintieswillbetransformedinto impact by residents’income the uncertaintyfinally．Inbackground，thispaper and themeasurementcausesoftheresidents’income analyzes uncertainty． summarizesthemethodof Firstly,thispaper measuringuncertainty, the and ofvarious comparingadvantagesdisadvantagesmethods，and 万方数据 selectsthe ratetomeasuretheurbanandrural adjusted conclusionisthaturbanandrural uncertainty．The is itshowsfluctuationsin80sand90sof uncertainty decreasing，butlarge 20th the from century largerfluctuations．Secondly,thispaperanalyzes three ofthe ofincomeofurbanandruralresidentsin aspectsuncertainty andruralresidentstheactualincome China： 1 urban growthvolatility； inthe incomeofurbanandrural 2 changestemporary ofresidents’income changes gap．Thirdly，withqualitativedescription oftheinfluencefactorsofurbanandruralresidents’income uncertainty, theresultsshowthatthemainfactors theurbanresidents’ affecting income arethesourceofincome levelof uncertainty diversification，the economic statusand national development，employmentpolicysupport． Andthefactors farrners’income include influencing uncertaintymainly the of farmers’income naturalriskof and change structure，the agriculture agriculturalmarketriskandthe ofthe products uncertaintysystem． the for 1 1 state modelthe984—202 national Fourthly，usingspace time—seriesdatato onthe theinfluencefa