Flying too high中国股市飞得太高了.docVIP

Flying too high 中国股市飞得太高了 IF YOU were a Chinese worker you could have spent the past year toiling to earn a living. Or you could have bought some shares and sat on the sofa. Chinese equities have been on a bull run of epic proportions. The CSI300, an index of the biggest mainland stocks, has more than doubled over the past year. That looks positively anaemic compared with ChiNext, a market for Chinese startups which has tripled in 12 months; let alone with shares in Qtone, an online-education company that gained almost 1, 300% between its listing early in 2014 and the middle of this month. Its own directors have warned investors to be wary of “ignorant hype”. 在过去的一年中，如果你是一位中国工人，你可能一直在艰辛地的谋生，也有可能买了一些股票，坐在沙发上[等着赚钱]。一段时间以来，中国证券市场一直奔跑在百年一遇的牛市中。大陆的大盘股指数——沪深300已在过去的一年中翻了一番以上。但是，同在过去12个月中上涨了3倍的专为创业企业设立的创业板相比，这看上去相当苍白无力；更别提同在线教育企业全通教育的股票相比了——从2014年初上市到本月中旬，这家企业的股票已经上涨了将近12倍。该公司高管已经警告投资者，警惕“无知的炒作”。 The signs of overvaluation are everywhere. Stocks listed on the Shenzhen exchange, home to most tech firms, have an average price-earnings ratio of 64; for those on the exchange for small and medium-sized enterprises it is 80. (For most stocks a P-E ratio above 25 is considered expensive.) ChiNext is now priced at nearly 140 times last years earnings, a valuation that puts it in the same league as NASDAQ, Americas tech-heavy exchange, at the height of the dotcom frenzy. Companies whose shares are listed in Hong Kong and in Shanghai are trading at a 30% premium in the mainland, near a four-year high. Some are twice as valuable in China, even though mainland money can now more easily slosh southward into the Hong Kong market. 估值过高的信号比比皆是。在作为大多数科技企业大本营的深交所上市的股票，平均市盈率已经达到64倍；在为中小板上市的股票的平均市盈率是80倍（对于大多数股票来说，市盈率超过25倍就已经相当贵了。）如今，创业板的股票正在以接近去年盈利140倍的价格在交易，这是一种置其同美国以科技企业为主的交易所——纳斯达克——在科技股泡沫最疯时相提并论的估值。同时在香港和大陆上市的企业的股票，正在以30％的溢价在大陆进行交易，接近4年来的高点。尽管大陆的资金现在能够更容易的南下进入香港市场，但是在大陆，有些股票的价格仍然是其港股的两倍。 Retail investors, long the “greater fools” of stockmarket booms and busts, are piling in. In a single