Oil markets and Arab unrest.doc

Oil markets and Arab unrest 石油市场和阿拉伯动乱 The price of fear 恐慌的代价 A complex chain of cause and effect links the Arab world’s turmoil to the health of the world economy 一个复杂的因果链将阿拉伯国家的动乱和世界经济的健康连接到一起 Mar 3rd 2011 | BREGA, LONDON AND WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition TWO factors determine the price of a barrel of oil: the fundamental laws of supply and demand, and naked fear. Both are being tested by the violence that is tearing through Libya, the world’s 13th-largest oil exporter. The price of a barrel of Brent crude now hovers around $115. On February 24th, however, it rose to almost $120, as traders realised that they might have to do for a while without some or all of Libya’s exports: some 1.4m barrels a day (b/d), or about 2% of the world’s needs. 两个因素决定着每桶油的价格：供需的基本法则以及表露无遗的恐慌。这两因素从使世界第十三大石油出口国利比亚备受煎熬的暴力冲突中得到验证。目前每桶布伦特原油的价格在115美元左右徘徊。然而，当交易者意识到他们在短时间内可能没法依赖部分或者所有的利比亚出口，就在2月24日，这个价格飙升至约120美元。利比亚每日出口石油约140万桶，占世界需求量的大约2%。 The situation in Libya is grim, as the rebels and the forces of Muammar Qaddafi battle for control of the country’s only resource. Brega, the seat of the Sirte Oil Company in the east of the country, has changed hands three times in recent days. Most of the oil workers have fled, and production has fallen by two-thirds. The ports of Sidra, Brega, Ras Lanuf, Tobruk and Zuetina, which together handle almost 80% of Libya’s oil exports, were all seized by the rebels; two have now been retaken by Colonel Qaddafi’s forces. The rebels remain in control of Africa’s largest oilfield, Sarir, pumping some 400,000 barrels on a normal day. But for how long? 随着叛乱分子和穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲苏尔特石油公司锡德拉湾拉斯拉努夫托卜鲁克祖埃提纳The history of oil is marked by Middle Eastern strife, supply shocks and global recession, with the Arab oil embargo in 1972, the Iranian revolution in 1978 and Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. To gauge the risks today you need to answer three questions. How vulnerable is the oil market to an interruption in supply? How sensitive is the world econo