我国寿险公司偿付能力评价的研究.pdf

Assessment Research on the Solvency of Life Insurance in Our Discipline： Student Sig Supervisor c’k1、|埴t Country - ^怎h柏，sn例轨 Abstract As one of the three major components of the financial industry,the insurance industry is the stabilizer in the social and economic development，which has become more and more increasingly important in our society．After 20 years of rapid development China’S life insurance has made remarkable record．HoweveL at present China’S life insurance industry is still in the initial stages of development．As China’S accession to WTO，the full liberalization of the insurance market，the continuous innovation of financial markets，and the reality of the international financial crisis，the competition is even more intense and the risk iS more diverse and complex．Solvency risk is one of the most important，most central issues．Based on such a realistic background，this article studies insurance companies’solvency evaluation and early warning studies． In this article，based on the in-depth study of domestic and foreign literature and detailed summary,based on the reference to the authority of regulations，a set of evaluation index system is built，which selects 1 47 life insurance companies in 2004．2007 as samples．uses SPSS 1 6．0 of 2 1 indicator variables for Pearson correlation coefficient analysis，conducts a factor analysis，principal component analysis，structural factor score function and the integrated score function，and then establishes a solvency assessment model；further,the solvency earlv warning models was constructed through Bayes discriminant analysis，And through which an empirical sample is correctly tested． Through the 2004—2007 year statistical analysis of data from life insurance companies，this thesis reached the following several important findings：(1)There are main factors which affect the solvency status of China’s Life Insurance Company and they are：the size of the company’S financial strength，asset quality,profitability,operating profit，capital