博弈论Chapter 5.ppt

Consistent beliefs imply that P2’s expected payoff is 0.5(5+5)=5 from choosing up, but 0.5(2+10)=6 from down. P2 chooses down. Thus, a strategy profile including up cannot be part of a weak sequential equilibrium The assessment consisting of the behavioral strategy profile (right down) and the belief system ((o.5, o.5),(o.5,o.5)) is a weak sequential equilibrium For P1 to choose right is optimal, given P2 chooses down Example But, what about beliefs for information sets that are off the equilibrium path ? We want beliefs for information sets that are off the equilibrium path to be reasonable.