WORLDWARIANDTHE1920sEXPORTLEDBOOMANDRECESSION一战中的日本和经济衰退详解.pptxVIP

Chapter7WORLDWARIANDTHE1920sEXPORT-LEDBOOMANDRECESSIONImpactofWW1WorldWar1BeganJuly1914SuspensionofinternationaltradeLittlemilitaryinvolvementAtthebeginningofthewar:StateoftheJapaneseeconomywasuncertainShortagesofhigh-qualitymachinesandindustrialmaterialsDuringthewar:CreatedahugeriseinwealthandprofittotheJapaneseeconomyWarEconomyShortage+↑Demand=InflationDomesticpricesmorethandoubledDecreaseindomesticconsumptionRealGNP(GrossNationalProduct)surgedAllowedJapantogetoutoftheirpre-WW1balanceofpaymentscrisisTradedeficitsandgoldreservelossS1S2D1D2QuantityPriceExportLedBoomDuetotwomainfactors:ShiftinglobaldemandIncreasingUSEconomyBroad-basedAllindustriesbenefitedEspeciallymarinetransportandshipbuildingTemporarylastedaslongasWW1continuedStrongdemandandhighpricesInefficient,excessiveandunsustainableMediocremerchantsbecamerichandsuccessfulNewclasscalledNarikin(成金）CollapseoftheBubble1920Collapseofthebubble1918JapaneseeconomycontinuedtodowellafterWWI.1920BUBBLECOLLAPSED　　➝Priceofcottonyarnfellby60%➝PriceofSilkfellby70%➝StockMarketindexplunged55%NodownwardpricerigidityMostNarikin’swerebankrupted　➝TheeconomysloweddownsignificantlyHowever…NoseverefallinoutputwasrecordedTheeconomysloweddownsignificantlyDomesticdemandwasnotbuoyantbutsteadyPricesremainedflexibleTradedeficitsreturnedandpersisted➝withpreviouslyaccumulatedgoldreservesThereactionoftheJapanesegovernment2policyoptions:①Torescueweakenedindustriesandbankssaddledwithbaddebt②ToeliminateinefficientunitsinordertostreamlinetheeconomydespitetransnationalpainTheBankofJapanprovidedemergencyloanstoailingbanksandindustriestoavoidfurtherbankruptciesandunemployment.➝Easedtheshort-termpainbutimplantedatimebombinJapaneseeconomy…ThelostdecadeDevelopmentofHeavyandChemicalIndustriesExchangeRateVolatilityTheGoldStandardPre-WW1,theworldeconomyhadstablepricesandfreetradeundertheinternationalgoldstandard.Japanadoptedthegoldstandardandfixeditsexchangeratestoothercurrenciesin1897.DuetoWW1,thefixedexchangeratewassoondoneawaywith.DuringWW1…Japanes