theeconomist10年.docVIP

CHINA has, at long last, surpassed Japan in terms of nominal GDP, making the Chinese economy the worlds second largest. Second quarter output in China came in at $1.337 trillion, to Japans $1.288 trillion (Japans output was larger in the first quarter; for comparison, Americas second quarter nominal output was $3.522 trillion). The shift is sure to be widely discussed and widely misinterpreted. There are a few key things to mention.中国终于超过在名义GDP上超过了日本，成为世界上第二大经济体。第二季度日本的1.288万亿美元，而中国生产总值为1.337万亿（第一季度日本产出值则要大于中国，相比之下，美国第二季度的名义生产总值为3.522万亿美元）。这种转变必然会引起广泛的讨论与误解。这里需要提及一些要点。First, while Chinese growth has been truly impressive in recent decades, the rapid overtaking of the Japanese economy also reflects years of disappointing growth there. This story is as much about Japans travails (and the risk to other rich economies facing a descent into Japanese-style stagnation) as it is Chinas boom.第一，中国近几年的经济增长确实引人瞩目，然而快速接替日本（成为全球第二大经济体）同样也反映了日本令人失望的经济增速。相比于中国经济的繁荣，这个事实更像是在说明此时正是日本经济的阵痛时期（其他强势经济将面临陷入经济低迷，进入日式经济停滞的危险）。Second, China remains a very poor country in per capita terms. It uses over four times as many citizens as America to produce less than half Americas output. Thats a bit misleading—urban productivity in China doesnt lag America by quite as much but is offset by the limited growth contribution of Chinas hundreds of millions of rural poor. Still, the total output figures encourage observers to vastly overstate the developmental level of the Chinese economy.第二，中国仍保持着极低的人均收入。中国人的生产人数是美国的四倍，生产总值却连美国的一半都不到。这有点误导了——中国城市生产率并未落后美国太多，然而被农村上亿贫困农民在经济增长中有限的贡献给抵消殆尽，然而生产总值仍使观察家倍受鼓舞，极大的夸张了中国经济的发展程度。And third, significant challenges remain ahead. As Eswar Prasad says:第三点，中国的艰巨挑战仍在前方。正如普拉萨德所言：There are virtually no historical parallels for a country that is so large and dominant in absolute terms and yet that lags far behind many other countries in terms of per capita income and other indicators of development. There is still a yawning gap in per capita income levels be