《国际贸易原理》GravityEquation.PPTVIP

Anderson Wincoop (2003) (0．Introduction and Literature Review) I．The McCallum Gravity Equation, Detailed When Necessary II．The Gravity Model, Detailed until (13) Page 175 III．Estimation, Omitted IV．Results, Omitted V．Sensitivity Analysis, Omitted VI．Conclusion, Omitted McCallum Gravity Equation This part estimates the McCallum gravity equation with the trade data as of the year 1993 for 30 U.S. states and 10 Canadian provinces: lnxij = ?1 + ?2lnyi + ?3lnyj + ?4lndij + ?5?ij + ?ij where ?ij is a dummy variable equal to one for interprovincial trade and zero for state-province trade. Note: Dummy ?ij is originally from the Canada perspective. Border Dummies We also report results when pooling all data, in which case there are two dummy variables. The first is one for interprovincial trade and zero otherwise, while the second is one for interstate trade and zero otherwise. Page 172 Border Effect Border-Canada is the exponential of the Canadian dummy variable coefficient, ?5, which gives us the effect of the border on the ratio of interprovincial trade to state-province trade after controlling for distance and size. Similarly, Border-U.S. is the exponential of the coefficient on the U.S. dummy variable, which gives the effect of the border on the ratio of interstate trade to state-province trade after controlling for distance and size. Page 172 Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff (2001) pose it as one of their six puzzles of open economy macroeconomics. John F. Helliwell and McCallum (1995) document its violation of economists prior beliefs. Gene Grossman (1998) says it is an unexpected result, even more surprising than Daniel Treflers (1995) mystery of the missing trade. Page 171 Building Blocks of the Gravity Model The first building block of the gravity model is that all goods are differentiated by place of origin. We assume that each region is specialized in the production of only one good. The supply of each good is fixed. The second building block is identical, hom