双语对照 - 世界经济：三分天下.doc

双语对照 - 世界经济：三分天下 世界经济：三分天下 THIS year has turned out to be a surprisingly good one for the world economy. Global output has probably risen by close to 5%, well above its trend rate and a lot faster than forecasters were expecting 12 months ago. Most of the dangers that frightened financial markets during the year have failed to materialise. China’s economy has not suffered a hard landing. America’s mid-year slowdown did not become a double-dip recession. Granted, the troubles of the euro area’s peripheral economies have proved all too real. Yet the euro zone as a whole has grown at a decent rate for an ageing continent, thanks to oomph from Germany, the fastest-growing big rich economy in 2010. ? 今年对于世界总体经济来说是一个出乎意料的好年份。全球总产值提高了大概5%，增幅远超过去年，增速也远比去年所预测的快。大多数会危及金融市场的事件都在年内尘埃落定。中国经济的着陆并不困难。美国年中的经济增速变缓也没有迎来二次衰退。但是，欧洲地区的外围经济却陷入了相当的困境。不过，作为一个老牌经济体，欧元区的经济还是有相当的增长，这多半要归功于德国的雄起。2010年发达国家经济中，德国的经济增长速度稳居首位。 The question now is whether 2011 will follow the same pattern. Many people seem to think so. Consumer and business confidence is rising in most parts of the world; global manufacturing is accelerating; and financial markets are buoyant. The MSCI index of global share prices has climbed by 20% since early July. Investors today are shrugging off news far more ominous than that which rattled them earlier this year, from the soaring debt yields in the euro zone’s periphery to news of rising inflation in China. ? 现在的问题在于，2011年，世界经济是不是会遵循2010年的轨迹。似乎许多人会回答是。现在全世界大部分地区，消费者和商家的信心日渐增长；全球产业正在稳步上升；金融市场也活跃。MSCI全球股票指数自七月早些时候来已经攀升了20%。对于诸如欧盟外围地区猛增的债务到中国通货膨胀加剧等这些年前让人坐立不安的不利消息，现在投资者对它们不屑一顾。 Earlier this year investors were too pessimistic. Now their breezy confidence seems misplaced. To oversimplify a little, the performance of the world economy in 2011 depends on what happens in three places: the big emerging markets, the euro area and America. (Yes, Japan is still an economic heavyweight, but it is less likely to yield surprises.) These big three are heading in very