11 新型城镇化的经济增长效应_时空分异与传导路径分析.docx

第8期总第274期商业经济与管理2014年8月JOURNAL 0F BUSINESS ECONOMICSNO．8 V01．274Aug．2014新型城镇化的经济增长效应：时空分异与传导路径分析赵永平1”，徐盈之1(1．东南大学经济管理学院，江苏南京211189；2．兰州商学院经济学院，甘肃兰州730020)摘要：利用2000—2012年30个省份的面板数据，实证分析了新型城镇化对经济增长的时空效应及其传导路径。研究结果表明：在控制消费、投资和产业结构升级三个变量的条件下，时间维度上新型城镇化对经济增长具有显著的正向影响，空间维度上对全国和东部地区具有显著正向促进作用，而对中西部地区的经济增长效应系数为正却不显著；接着分析了中西部地区新型城镇化对经济增长的三条潜在传导路径，根据测算的路径强度，发现消费路径和投资路径是新型城镇化推动经济增长的主要途径，但产业结构升级路径对经济增长存在阻碍作用，说明在中西部地区新型城镇化通过产业结构升级来有力推进经济增长还有待时日。关键词：新型城镇化；经济增长效应；时空分异；传导路径；产业结构升级中图分类号：F293文献标识码：A文章编号：1000—2154(2014)08—0048—09Effectof NewUrbanization onEconomic Growth：SpatiotemporalDifferentiation and ConductPathZHAOYong．pin91”，XUYing．zhil(J．School of Economics and Management，Southeast University，Na彬ng 21 1 189，China； 2．School of Economics，Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics，Lanzhou 730020，China)Abstract：Based onthe panel data of 30 provinces regions for 2000—2012，this paper empirically analyzes the spatiotemporaleffect of new urbanization on economic growth and its conduct path．Results show that new urbanization always has a significant posi-tiveimpact oneconomicgrowthintimedimension，and in spatial dimension it has a significant positive impact in national andeast-ernregions，whileinthe central andwesternregions it has positive coefficient but not significant，when controlling for consumption，investmentand the industrial structure upgrading．Then this paper analyzes the three potential pathsof new urbanization on economicgrowthinthe central and western regions．Based on path intensity，we find that the consumption and investment paths of new urbani·zationarethe mainroutetopromoting economic growth．However，the path of the industrial structure upgrading hinders the econom—icgrowth，which indicatesthatindustrial structureupgrading pathof newurbanization strongly promoting economic growth still re—mains tobeseeninthe centraland western regions．Key words：newurbanization；effect of economic growth；spatiotemporal differentiation；conduct path；industrial s