0103希腊又在摇撼欧元.docxVIP

希腊又在摇撼欧元“纸牌屋”?Voters are the eurozone’s weakest linkThe euro crisis is back. An election in Greece next month and the probable victory of Syriza, a far-left party, will frighten politicians and investors. Once again they will be engaged in a grim discussion of a connected series of possible horrors: debt-default, bank runs, bailouts, social unrest and the possible ejection of Greece from the eurozone.欧元危机又回来了。希腊下月将举行大选，而极左政党激进左翼联盟(Syriza)的获胜前景令政界人士和投资者感到害怕。他们将要再次展开一场严峻的讨论，主题是一系列可能发生且相互关联的可怕事件：债务违约、银行挤兑、纾困、社会不安定以及希腊有可能退出欧元区。??It is somehow fitting that this crisis should break out at the very end of a year in which markets were lulled into believing that the euro crisis was essentially over. The cost of borrowing of debtor nations in Europe had fallen sharply, reflecting the widespread belief that the European Central Bank’s famous pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency has removed the risk of euro collapse.在某种角度上，这场危机发生在市场误以为欧元危机已基本结束的一年的年底，时机颇为恰当。此前欧洲债务国的借贷成本已大幅下降，反映出一个普遍信念，即欧洲央行(ECB)“不惜一切代价”拯救单一货币的著名承诺消除了欧元崩溃的风险。??That idea was always naive, as events in Greece are now illustrating. The weak link in the theory was European politics – and, specifically, the risk that voters would revolt against economic austerity and cast their ballots for “anti-system” parties that reject the European consensus on how to keep the single currency together.这种想法从来就是天真的，希腊现在的情况就是例证。该理论的薄弱环节是欧洲政治，尤其是选民会因反感经济紧缩而投票给“反体制”政党的风险，这类政党不接受欧洲大家庭对于如何保持单一货币的共识。??If that consensus is broken the whole delicate house of cards of debt, bailouts and austerity begins to wobble. And that is what we are seeing in Greece now.如果这一共识被打破，那么由债务、纾困和紧缩构成的整栋脆弱的“纸牌屋”就会开始摇晃。这正是我们现在在希腊所看到的。??The development of the euro crisis has always involved the interaction of three elements: politics, markets and economics. When things are improving, the three elements can create a virtuous circle: voters elect mainstream politicians, the markets relax and interest-rates fall, and so the real economy impr