勞动力外出务工对农户种植结构的影响研究王翌秋南京农业大学.docxVIP

PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT - 11 - 劳动力外出务工对农户种植结构的影响研究? ?项目来源：本文得到国家社会科学基金重大项目“现代农业导向的农业结构战略性研究”（编号：11ZD010）资助。 ——基于江苏、河南两省农户调查的实证分析 王翌秋1，陈玉珠2 (1南京农业大学金融学院，江苏省南京市， HYPERLINK mailto:wangyiqiu@njau.edu.cn wangyiqiu@njau.edu.cn; 2南京农业大学经济管理学院，江苏省南京市，yuzhuchen208@sina.cn;) 摘要：劳动力的配置组合向更优的方向调整和变化是农业结构调整的实质。本文基于2012年在江苏和河南省四个市的实地调研数据，以农户为分析单元，从农户种植概率和种植比重角度考察了劳动力外出务工对农户种植结构的影响。计量分析表明，劳动力外出务工并未改变家庭对各类型作物的种植概率，而务工却改变了农户各作物的种植比重。务工户更重视劳动力相对不密集的粮食生产并更少参与经济作物生产活动，劳动力外出打工给农户的资金支持并未促使他们生产更多资金相对密集的农产品。以此，本文对农村劳动力合理转移提出政策建议，加快传统农业改造与城镇化建设的步伐。 关键词：外出务工；种植生产结构；种植概率；种植比重 The Impacts of Labor Migration on Farm Households’ Cropping Structure in the Context of Urbanization Abstract: The essence of agricultural structural adjustment is that the allocation of production factor tends to be more reasonable. Based on a field survey carried out in 2012 at four cities in Jiangsu and Henan Province, the influence of labor migration on cropping structure was analyzed from the perspective of planting probability and proportion. Empirical results suggest that labor migration hasn’t changed the planting probability of different crop, while it changes the crops’ planting proportion. Migrant households pay more attention to food production that labor is relatively less intensive and less involved in the activities of producing economic crop. Households’ financial support from labor migration hasnt prompted them to produce more agricultural products which capital is more needed. Thus, the essay presents some policy suggestions on transferring rural labor reasonably, fastening the Pace in the transformation of traditional agriculture and the urbanization construction. Keywords: labor migration; cropping structure; planting probability; planting proportion 一、引言 随着我国城镇化、工业化进程的加快，促使农村劳动力的非农就业及乡城转移规模不断扩大。根据国家统计局农村司的监测调查，到2011年底全国跨地区流动的农村劳动力已达15,198万人。如果加上就地非农就业的农村劳动力，这一数字将增加到22,978万人，占农村总人口的比例超过了30%。然而，由于城乡二元结构的客观限制，以及养老与社会保障制度的不健全，又使得绝大多数农户不能完全放弃农业生产。同时，大量农村人口向城镇转移，尤其是青壮年劳动力，也给国家粮食安全和农业现代化造成了巨大压力。 因而，研究劳动