An Update on EPA Attainment Modeling Guidance for the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.pptVIP

An Update on EPA Attainment Modeling Guidance for the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS Brian Timin EPA/OAQPS/EMAD/AQMG November 16, 2005 Status of Ozone Modeling Guidance “Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses in Attainment Demonstrations for the 8-hour Ozone NAAQS” Original draft released in 1999 Released “Draft Final” version on February 17th, 2005 Comments received in March Final version released November, 2005 Available on EPA’s website at: /scram001/guidance_sip.htm Status of PM2.5/Regional Haze Modeling Guidance “Guidance for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for PM2.5 and Regional Haze” January, 2001 Available on EPA’s website at: /scram001/guidance/guide/draft_pm.pdf Revised draft will be available by the end of 2005 Final version in early 2006 Plan to incorporate final version of ozone and PM2.5 guidance into a single document Final Ozone Modeling Guidance- Key Updates Screening test/unmonitored areas Where is the attainment test applied? Calculation of current/baseline design values Language concerning transport Which future year to model? Weight of evidence/supplemental analyses Minimum RRF threshold Minimum number of days to model Attainment Test in Unmonitored Areas We eliminated the “screening test” and replaced it with an “unmonitored area analysis”. Use “model adjusted” spatial fields to estimate ozone concentrations in unmonitored areas. The spatial fields can be created using software provided by EPA. We have a work assignment in place to create the software and plan to perform an example analysis Attainment Test in Unmonitored Areas Policy issue: “While it is expected that additional emissions controls are needed to eliminate predicted violations of the monitor based test, the same requirements may not be appropriate in unmonitored areas...... Due to the uncertainty of the analysis, at a minimum, it is appropriate to commit to additional deployment of ozone monitors in areas where the unmonitored area analysis predicts fut