Believe It or Not.docVIP

Believe It or NotAfter a 7.0-magnitude earthquake jolted Lushan County in Ya’an City in southwest China’s Sichuan Province on April 20， a man in distant Heze City， Shandong Province， rose to instant Internet fame. He was dubbed“the king of prophets” after netizens discovered that he successfully predicted the earthquake in Lushan one month before it hit.The name of the man’s microblog account means “ancestor of earthquake deciphering.” He wrote on March 26， “On the evening of March 19， a tornado hit Daoxian County， Yongzhou City in Hunan Province. Look！ About 30 days later， an earthquake measuring at least 7.0-magnitude will strike to the northwest of the spot where the tornado disappeared.”It turned out that a 7.0-magtitude did occur about 30 days later， in Lushan County， which lies to the northwest of Daoxian County.In the last five years， China has been hit by several damaging earthquakes including the devastating 8.0-magnitude Wenchuan earthquake that resulted in 69，227 confirmed deaths in May 2008.As people survey damage in the aftermath of earthquakes， many cannot help wondering whether they can be predicted. Some looked retrospectively for phenomena that could have offered a warning， hoping to gain the ability to predict future quakes.Unreliable predictionUnfortunately， earthquake predictions are often found to be without merit. On April 24， official media People’s Daily listed 10 big rumors about the earthquake in Lushan， among them， the anonymous Heze resident’s prediction.Netizens disclosed that the so-called “king of prophets” has predicted more than 1，500 earthquakes， but only five occurred.Usually， non-governmental earthquake predictors make frequent prognostications， most of which are wrong， whereas “only the one that is correct is ever talked about，” said Chen Huizhong， a research fellow with the Institute of Earthquake Science under the China Earthquake Administration （CEA）.“So far， no one has made an accurate imminent earthquake prediction. This is