城市动态模研究进展.docVIP

城市动态模拟研究进展 刘明皓1，王耀兴1 （1重庆邮电大学计算机科学与技术学院，重庆邮电大学中韩合作GIS研究所，重庆，400065） 摘要：文章回顾了城市土地利用动态模拟基本原理、过程、方法和主要模型。研究表明：城市动态模拟模型主要有基于经验统计方法的CLUE-S模型、基于多智能主体分析方法的ABM模型和基于栅格邻域关系分析方法的CA模型、基于土地系统结构变化及空间格局演替综合分析的DLS模型；不同的模型基于不同的理论基础和方法，具有不同的优点和缺点，适用于不同的情景和数据基础上的模拟；已有文献关于城市动态模拟的研究内容主要体现在城市演进机理和模拟工具研究、模型的改进与完善研究以及模拟结果与过程的可视化表达研究等方面。文章最后指出了未来城市动态模拟的发展趋势。 关键词：城市；土地利用；动态模拟；元胞自动机；系统动力学；多智能体模型；地理计算 中图分类号：TN914.53 文献标识：A Simulating Land Use Change in Urban: Progress and Prospects Liu Ming-hao1，Wang Yao-xing1，Li Dong-hong1，Xia Bao-bao1 (1. School of Computer Science, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecoms, Chongqing 400065, P. R. China；) Abstract:This article reviews the basic principles, process, methods and main dynamic models being used in urban. Results show that: the CLUE–S (the Conversation of Land Use and its Effects at Small region extent) based on experiential statistical methods, the ABM model based on multi-agent system, the CA (Cellular Automata) model based on raster and the DLS (Simulation of Land System Dynamic) model based on comprehensive analysis of land system structure and spatial pattern were mainly used models. Models that based on different theoretical basis and methods had both advantages and disadvantages, which will be applied to simulate according to different scenarios and data. Recent researches have focus on the study of urban evolution mechanism, models improvement and visualization about the simulation process and results. In this paper, we attempt to outline the basic concepts and general modeling framework of urban simulation, discuss the pros and cons of these models and explore their future direction in urban dynamics. Key Words: Urban; Land Use; Dynamic Simulation; CA; System Dynamics; Multi-agent System Model; GeoComputation. 收稿日期：2012-12-20 基金项目：重庆市自然科学基金CQ CSTC (Grant NO.2011jjA30014) 资助。 0 前 言* 土地系统模拟旨在回答土地系统结构在何时、何地、为何发生变化以及发生怎样的变化和转换，并导致何种突出的环境效应。这些方法的实现，必须运用定量分析的方法，开展区域用地结构情景分析，阐明土地系统动态变化机制，建立土地系统动态模拟模型[1]。模型，