Cliometrics and Technological Change eshet历史计量学和技术变革埃谢特.net.ppt

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Cliometrics and Technological Change eshet历史计量学和技术变革埃谢特.net.ppt

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Cliometrics and Technological Change Nick Crafts Centrality of Technological Progress The defining characteristic of Modern Economic Growth (Kuznets) “Our knowledge of economic history, of what production looked like 100 years ago, and of current events convinces us beyond any doubt that discovery, invention, and innovation are of overwhelming importance in economic growth” (Paul Romer, 1994) What Is Distinctive? Long-run perspective in which want to measure and to explain success and failure in economic growth Invention is partly endogenous Localized technological progress Divergence Big Time Historical approach (no tabula rasa) NB: demands more than neoclassical economics has to offer, cf. cliometric schizophrenia Economic History and EconomicsSolow (1985) The danger is that “economic theory learns nothing from economic history, and economic history is as much corrupted as enriched by economic theory” And “an economic historian is merely an economist with a high tolerance for dust” Keywords Labor Scarcity Macro vs. Micro Inventions New Institutional Economic History Path Dependence Social Capability Social Savings Key Players Moses Abramovitz Robert Allen Paul David Robert Fogel Joel Mokyr Douglass North What Sort of Growth Theory? Exogenous Endogenous AK Unified Appropriate (endogenous innovation) Better menu now but some items still indigestible Macro vs. Micro InventionsMokyr (1990) Macro Inventions: radical new and economically important ideas that come along occasionally and unpredictably Micro Inventions: incremental improvements that account for most TFP growth and reflect economic incentives Implies that explaining timing of technological breakthroughs (new GPTs) problematic and time-series predictions of endogenous growth models unreliable Solow’s Seminal Paper Crude TFP vs. Capital Deepening US not the same before or since the Solow period Neither “Take-Off” Europe nor “Golden-Age” Europe match the 7/8 proportion Crude TFP growth ≠ technical change ge