中国人口转变与消费制度的变迁.doc

2005年中国经济学年会应征论文 中国人口转变与消费制度变迁 李通屏 关键词：人口转变;制度变迁；消费;消费制度 摘 要：从抑制消费到刺激消费是中国历史上消费制度的重大变革。本文运用新制度经济学和人口经济学理论，论证了新中国人口转变通过人口增长的迅速下降、人口年龄结构的变化及其带来的人口红利对消费制度变迁的影响：死亡率下降主导的初期阶段，人口转变固化了抑制消费的制度，而在出生率下降主导的阶段，人口转变与改革开放条件下的高速经济增长相叠加加剧了原有消费制度的不均衡，促成了新制度的诞生。通过实证分析，揭示出消费率在人口转变过程中下降的必然性和中国保持适度人口增长的必要。 From Controlling Consumption to Stimulating Consumption: Demographic Transition and China’s Consumption Institutional Change Key terms: Demographic Transition, institutional Change, Consumption, Consumption institutions Abstract: From controlling consumption to stimulating consumption is a momentous change in China’s consumption institutional history. By using the principles of new institutional economics and population economics, this paper explains the effects of demographic transition on china’s consumption institutional change through the rapid declining population growth, the age structural change and it’s population dividend: in the primary stage of death rate downward driven, the demographic transition strengthened the controlling consumption institutions. Whereas, in the stage of birth rate declining orientated, the interaction of demographic transition and rapid economic growth overlapping under opening and reform causes old consumption institutions unequilibrium, so as to induce the new ones. The empirical study points out the inevitability of China’s final consumption ratio diminishing in the process of demographic transition. Then discusses the policy implications, China needs to carry out harmonious policies of population and economy, to maintain optimum population growth instead of zero or negative as fast as we can. 中国人口转变与消费制度变迁 建国50多年来，中国消费制度经过了从抑制消费到刺激消费的转变。从建国初期到20世纪90年代中期，特别是改革开放前的30年，抑制消费是中国消费制度的基本特征。从1998年开始，进入刺激消费政策的具体实施阶段。有关这一变迁的文献多集中在变革的必要性上，而对其原因的研究则不多见。一些偶尔涉及新中国消费制度及其变迁的文章，又仅仅局限于供求关系的改变和市场机制的引入，而对这种转变的机制缺乏深刻分析。本文认为，消费制度变迁还有其重要的生成机制——新中国人口转变的迅速和深刻。 人口因素和战争被新制度经济学誉为解释封建制度兴衰的“钥匙”，通过土地和劳动的相对价格的影响，人口变化对经济组织和所有权变革起着决定性的作用（诺思，1981，第124页）。后来，用人口