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currency trading WSJ-Currency trading1286feb11
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, Wall St. Journal, 25 February 2011
Forex Tips From the Far East
In the U.S., currency trading is still a fringe bet for just a handful of traders. But almost 7,000 miles away, the Japanese are practically pros -- staying up all hours to short the yen against the lira, obsessively following central bankers’ moves, and wielding such force they’re moving currency prices around the world.
For a nation of 127 million, the power of Japan’s currency traders may seem astonishing. Globally, household, or retail, currency trading accounts for less than 10% of the $4 trillion daily forex transactions, but Japanese traders are so active they account for significant moves in currencies they favor. For example, 4% of the daily turnover of the British pound, can be traced to Japanese retail investors, as can 5% of turnover of the Australian dollar, according to a 2009 study by the Reserve Bank of Australia. All told, Japanese investors account for a whopping 30% of spot trading in the yen, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
To Americans, that sounds nearly impossible. But to those familiar with the Japanese forex scene, it’s not surprising. “They are sizable like that,” says Javier Paz, a senior analyst with the Aite Group, a financial services consulting firm. And enthusiastic: Despite new restrictions on the amount of leverage traders can use (and therefore, how profitable or risky their trades may be), the number of retail traders rose 15% from 2009 to 2010, according to the Aite Group.
Why are Japanese investors so crazy for currency trading? First, Japanese households are, in the aggregate, flush with cash. The household savings rate has historically been high– up to 15% in the early 1990s, though the rate has dropped to 2% in recent years, according to the IMF. (During the same period, the U.S. household savings rate was never higher
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