FinalReportAnAgent-BasedModelofPredator-PreyRelatio.doc

Final Report: An Agent-Based Model of Predator-Prey Relationships Between Transient Killer Whales and Other Marine Mammals Principal Investigators: Kenrick J. Mock and J. Ward Testa Student Participants: Cameron Taylor, Heather Koyuk, Jessica Coyle, Russell Waggoner, Kelly Newman Date: May 31, 2007 Introduction The role of killer whales (Orcinus orca) in the decline of various marine mammal populations in Alaska is controversial and potentially important in their recovery. Springer et al. (2003) hypothesized that declines in harbor seal, Steller sea lion and sea otter populations in Alaska were driven by the over-harvest of great whales in the 1950’s – 1970’s, leading to a cascade of prey-switching by killer whales from these large prey species to smaller, less desirable prey species. That hypothesis is opposed by many cetacean researchers , who cite inconsistencies in the timing of declines, insufficient killer whale predation on large whales, and the absence of declines in other areas with the same patterns of commercial whaling (DeMaster et al. 2006, Mizroch and Rice 2006, Trites et al. 2007 In Press, Wade et al. 2007 In Press). Whatever the role of commercial whaling, it is known that killer whales prey on threatened marine mammal populations in the North Pacific (e.g., sea otters, Enhydra lutris, and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus), and that the magnitude of that predation is at least a plausible factor either in their decline or in their failure to recover (Estes et al. 1998, Heise et al. 2003, Springer et al. 2003). Estimation of killer whale numbers and the rates of predation on various marine mammal species now have high research priority, but how we interpret these new data is dependent on having an adequate theoretical framework. Thus far, only simplistic, static models of killer whale consumption have been constructed to test the plausibility of killer whale impact on other species (e.g., number of whales ( killing rate of Steller sea lions = e