實際選擇權於休閒農業投資決策之研究.docVIP

實質選擇權應用於休閒產業投資風險管理決策之研究 Utilizing Real Options in the management Decisions of LR Industry Investment Risk *林左裕Zuo Yu. Lin **譚兆平Chang Ping. Tan 摘 要 本研究係以專案投資（Project Finance）的觀念，在不確定環境裡對於休閒產業（Leisure and Recreation Industry）之組織能量（Organizational Capability）的使施，所建構出一結構化的休閒產業專案投資實質選擇權（Real Options）決策模型。此模型內的每一決策點皆隱含有等待（遞延（Option to Defer）、擴張(成長)（Option to Expand）、緊縮（Option to Contract）和放棄（Option to Abandon）四種主要類型的選擇權。 模型建立是依據專案投資本身內部組織因素與外部市場景氣與否，作為風險管理（Risk Management）的考量，以獲得該專案投資利潤之極大化。數值的獲得是透過實質選擇權「封閉式（Close Form）」求解的方式，利用二項式評價模型，對模型內所有組織能量與銷售額組合的價值折現，以求得每個價值；決策者可經由比較不同彈性及時機所組合的價值，擇取最適合企業長期目標的投資策略，以及經過專案執行評估之後，企業應擴大、縮小或選擇維持投資規模，甚而暫緩、終止該計畫。 實證結果指出本動態規劃（Dynamic Programming）模型可套用在休閒產業且真實反應企業在實際上所面臨的彈性投資策略，並凸顯專案選擇權決策評估法優於傳統特定時間點所做的專案評估現金流量折現法，甚至透過實質選擇權亦可大幅降低專案投資計畫的風險。 Abstract The research is based on the concept of Project Finance which is adopted by the Organizational Capability of the Leisure and Recreation Industry in the uncertain environment, in order to establish Structural Real Options decision model for the LRI. Each decision in the model has four mains options Option to Defer, Expand, Contract and Abandon. To obtain the maximum profile of Project Finance, therefore, both external (or environment al) constraints, as well as internal constraints which stem from the firms current strategies or organization of international operations, In short, these are related to the construction at the Risk Management as a whole. All in all, all of statistical results of this survey are based on close form at Real Options and binomial option pricing model, BOPM in order to gain each value from the both Discounted Cash Flow of the organization capability and sales combination. The investment target that the management chooses is based on the elasticity and timing at their long-term goals. Moreover, the firms could expand, reduce, or maintain investment dimension after the experts evaluate it. According to the research, Dynamic Programming can be utilized in LR Industr