ppt课件-forecasting.ppt-universityofnotredame.pptVIP

Chapter 13 Analyzing and Forecasting Time Series Data Chapter 13 - Chapter Outcomes After studying the material in this chapter, you should be able to: Apply the basic steps in developing and implementing forecasting models. Identify the components present in a time series. Use smoothing-based forecasting models including, single and double exponential smoothing. Apply trend-based forecasting models, including linear trend, nonlinear trend, and seasonally adjusted trend. Forecasting Model specification refers to the process of selecting the forecasting technique to be used in a particular situation. Forecasting Model fitting refers to the process of determining how well a specified model fits its past data. Forecasting Model diagnosis refers to the process of determining how well the model fits the past data and how well the model’s assumptions appear to be satisfied. Forecasting The forecasting horizon refers to the number of future periods covered by the forecast, sometimes referred to as forecast lead time. Forecasting The forecasting period refers to the unit of time for which the forecasts are to be made. Forecasting The forecasting interval refers to the frequency with which the new forecasts are prepared. Forecasting Time-Series data are data which are measured over time. In most applications the period between measurements is uniform. Components of Time Series Data Trend Component Seasonal Component Cyclical Component Random Component Time Series Forecasting A time-series plot is a two-dimensional plot of the time series. The vertical axis measures the variable of interest and the horizontal axis corresponds to the time periods. Time-Series Plot(Figure 13-1) Time Series Forecasting A linear trend is any long-term increase or decrease in a time series in which the rate of change is relatively constant. Time Series Forecasting A seasonal component is a pattern that is repeated throughout a time series and has a recurrence period of at most one year. Tim