ppt课件-immigrationpolicyandtheagriculurallabormarket.pptVIP

IMMIGRATION POLICY AND THE AGRICULTURAL LABOR MARKET: SPECIALTY CROPS IN THE UNITED STATES Nobuyuki Iwai Robert D. Emerson Orachos Napasintuwong International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center Department of Food and Resource Economics University of Florida BACKGROUND Specialty Crops Labor intensive 37% on labor expenditures in fruits, vegetables, horticultural crops production vs. 13% for all ag production Foreign workers 78% of ag workers in 2000-01 68% undocumented IMMIGRATION POLICY Speculation that amnesty would lead to labor shortages and wage increases in agriculture Tran Perloff (2002) IRCA of 1986 increased long-run probability that people granted amnesty stayed in agriculture Hashida Perloff (1996) Same direction Emerson Napasintuwong (2002) Longer duration for authorized than unauthorized workers OBJECTIVES OF OUR STUDY Censored data: duration of a particular legal status is observed only if workers have that status Duration model with sample bias correction Heckman two-stage sample selection method: ordered probit model explains legal status, duration model estimates spells for each legal status Data National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS) 1989-2004 Specialty Crops: all crops excluding major field crops, sugar beets, sugarcane, tobacco, and soybeans Legal status: unauthorized, authorized, permanent residents, citizens (in order) Duration: completed farm work spells Results: Ordered Probit Model Female, Married, English speaking skills, Non-Black, White, Non-Hispanic, Education, Before 1993, Before 2001 have positive effect on higher legal status Age, U.S. farm work experience have non-linear effects, but positive over relevant range Marginal Effects on Legal Status Actual-Predicted Legal Status Results: Duration Model Average Predicted Duration (days) Simulations Fixed characteristics of workers at typical unauthorized worker Male, married, Hispanic, non-black, non-white, no free housing, age 28, 6th grade education, 5.8 years of U.S.