InternationalFutures(IFs)AnOverviewofStructuralDe.pptVIP

International Futures (IFs) An Overview of Structural Design March 2004 Barry Hughes University of Denver Outline: An Overview of Structural Design Foundations: Motivation, Purposes, Assumptions Design Drivers: Desired Characteristics Design Decisions and Elements: Generic Design Details: Issue-Area/Module Specific Vision for Evolution Foundations: Motivation and Purposes Tool for understanding long-term global change Education Insight Tool for exploring human leverage in pursuit of key values/goals: Design Drivers: Desired Characteristics Global (With Regional and Country Detail) Integrated, Multi-Issue Long-Term Data and Theory-Based Interventions Possible User-Friendly Accessible/Available Transparent/Open Design Decisions/Elements I:  Modules, Example Links Design Decisions/Elements II: Components Design Decisions III: Characterizing/Implementing “Structure-based, (increasingly) agent-class driven, dynamic modeling” Not systems dynamics (but use stocks/flows) Not econometrics (but use estimation) Not optimization (but can explore for strategies) Implemented with recursive, difference equations Not analytic solution or comparative statics (but can pursue equilibrium and represent disequilibrium) Substantial interface with many intervention points Not trivial to use (but can implement scenarios and drill-down) Design Details I: Demographics Design Details II: Goods and Services Production Design Details III: Goods and Services Market Design Details IV: Finance Design Details V: Energy Resources Design Details VI: Energy Production Design Details VII: Energy Markets Design Details VIII: Land Use Design Details IX: Food Production Design Details X: Food/Agriculture Markets Design Details XI: Environment (CO2) Design Details XII: Environment (Water) Design Details XIII: Values/Culture Design Details XIV: Education Design Details XV: Democracy Design Details XVI: Hu