NewCentury,NewBusinessModels.pptVIP

Private and Confidential Presentation Title Speaker Name New Century, New Business Models GEMI Power Conference June 2006 China India aspire to OECD living standards – their rise to materiality changes everything Oil has little competition in the transportation sector Coal and natural gas are competing for power growth Issue #1: Oil and gas suffer from a security of supply “externality” Issue #2: Coal suffers from a GHG emissions “externality” To address these issues, we must reframe our sense of industry purpose and boundaries What will be the Winning Business Models? Conservative Oil? Big Dig? Big Oil to Big Energy? Global Cool? Super-Power? Why Not? The Ultimate Resource is Human Ingenuity Key strategic questions for an industry in transition to a very different future What are the big trends and how can we get downwind of them? Can we shape the way the rules of the game are written? What should be our direction and what goals should we set? What should be the boundaries of our business portfolio? Which areas should we focus on with greatest intensity? What is the best business model for competitive advantage? What will be the value drivers? How do we leverage our existing and new competencies? How do we build out the strategy to get where we want to? Which partners will we need to execute the strategy? Is our leadership aligned with the new direction? New Century, New Business Models * Global Transportation 85.9 Quads 125.0 Quads 2003 2030 +45% Source: EIA IEO2006 Global Power Generation 163.7 Quads 296.4 Quads +81% Source: EIA IEO2006 2003 2030 Source: EIA IEO2006 Personal Mobility Electrons On Demand Emissions Control Primary “Goods” Crude Oil Natural Gas Coal Bio-fuels Wind, Tides, Currents, Waves, Solar Nuclear Engineered Crops Hydrocarbons Carbon Neutral Resource Segments Nuclear Waste Transportation Bio-refining Chem Processing Transmission Sequestration ICE Fuel Cell Gasoline Diesel Gasification Combined Cycle Chemical Separation Syngas Hydrogen Fischer