n s wand a c t regional climate model projectscope（n s魔杖c t projectscope区域气候模型）（17页）.docVIP

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n s wand a c t regional climate model projectscope（n s魔杖c t projectscope区域气候模型）（17页）.doc

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NSW and ACT Regional Climate Model (NARCliM) Project Time Lines and Downscaling Methodology for Peer Review July 2011 1. Purpose of the project The Office of Environment and Heritage (OEH) is developing a regional climate model ensemble that will generate detailed climate projections for the State and the Australian Capital Territory. Projections at such a fine scale have not been available in NSW before and will provide the detailed information fire and emergency management, water and energy management, agriculture, urban planning and biodiversity management need to adapt to a future climate. The express purpose of the project is to deliver robust climate change projections at a scale relevant for use in local-scale decision-making. 2. Background Projections about our future climate form a critical part of adaptation planning. They take us a step beyond assuming that our climate will remain the same in the future, or that it will unpredictably fluctuate within the bounds of natural variability. They help us ask the question: given our understanding of climate drivers, and plausible future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, how will our climate system respond – 20 or 50 years down the track? The NSW Government has developed a ‘first cut’ of climate projections for NSW through the NSW Climate Impact Profile. These projections are based on a small number of dynamical global climate models (GCMs) that were selected because of their skill in modelling major climate variables for this region of the globe. GCMs are based on physical processes (e.g. how solar radiation, the atmosphere, land and oceans interact to generate weather and climate) and evolve over time (hence ‘dynamical’). GCM projections do have a number of limitations which reduces their usefulness in predicting future climate at the fine scale regional level: Typically they have a resolution of between 100 and 400 kilometres. For instance, a single temperature or rainfall fi