人民幣汇率变动对中国出境旅游的发展.doc

内 容 摘 要 汇率在国际金融和国际贸易活动中执行着价格转换职能。汇率水平的变化，， 根据传统理论分析，随着人民币的升值，我国出境旅游的发展将产生一定的影响。为更充分反映人民币汇率变动对我国出境旅游的影响，本文采用了1985年至2008年相关年度数据，以局部均衡模型为理论铺垫，对人民币汇率和我国出境旅游之间的影响关系进行了研究分析。 结果表明，人民币汇率变动对我国出境旅游的发展有着比较显著的影响，主要从我国出境旅游规模，游客出境消费水平和游客目的地选择三方面来表现。 笔者建议，在出境旅游市场迅速发展的同时，我国也应该预防“过热”的状态出现。因此对出境旅游政策的选择应从发展的眼光看，要使我国旅游经济向着正面积极的方向发展。 关键词：人民币升值 出境旅游 影响  ABSTRACT In international financial and trade activities, exchange rate implements the function of conversing price. Changes in exchange rates are mainly referring to the price between two currencies. These changes have been impacted not only a countrys foreign import and export trade, also the tourism, a particular services trade related with non-trade foreign exchange. Nowadays, outbound tourism, as an important component of Chinas tourism industry, has been developing rapidly and become a focus with the RMB continues appreciating. In that case, do RMB exchange rate movements affect the development of outbound tourism? According to traditional theory analysis, with the appreciation of RMB, Chinas outbound tourism development will have a certain impact. To reflect more accurately the impact of RMB exchange rate movements on Chinas outbound tourism, this paper uses related annual data from 1985 to 2008, to analyse RMB relationship of exchange rates and Chinas outbound tourism on the basis of partial equilibrium theory . The results have shown that the RMB exchange rate movements impact significvantly on the development of Chinas outbound tourism, which is mainly expressed from the scale of Chinas outbound tourism, the consumption level of tourists, and the tourists choice of destination. The author suggested that, while the outbound tourism market is developing rapidly, China should also prevent the appearing of overheating. Therefore, China should have a developing perspective of tourism policy to make Chinas tourism economy step toward a positive direction. KEYWORDS：RMB exchange rate Outbound tourism Impact