解读约瑟夫奈的软权力观.docVIP

一、1995年，美国在东亚地区的存在 经济增长离不开政治稳定。东亚是目前世界上最具经济活力的地区，因而美国将继续在该地区的军事存在。经济增长伴随着国防开支和军事能力的增长，因而，中国作为该地区的经济大国，其日益增长的经济实力势必让美国产生恐惧。 美国在该地区的领导政策既源于以下原因：该地区的经济活力；其国土安全，四个州的边界在太平洋，有三个海岛，关岛、美属萨摩亚、北马里亚纳联邦Political order is not sufficient to explain economic prosperity, but it is necessary. East Asia is currently the worlds most dynamic economic region. Asia and the Pacific (excluding the United States) are expected to account for about one-third of the worlds economic activity at the start of the next century. Among the important and often neglected reasons for East Asias success are American alliances in the region and the continued presence of substantial U.S. Forces. Our national interests demand our deep engagement in the region. History shows us that periods of the rise and fall of great powers are often times of great instability in international state systems.The international power structure in East Asia today is marked by the rise and fall of great powers.Suppose that we simply posited a 50 percent chance of an aggressive China and a 50 percent chance of China becoming a responsible great power in the region. On this hypothesis, to treat China as an enemy now would in effect discount 50 percent of the future. There are three parts to the American security strategy for East Asia. Reinforcing our alliances to identify their new basis after the Cold War is at the heart of the strategy. The second component of the U. S. strategy is to maintain our forward-based troop presence.The third dimension of the strategy is to develop regional institutions. THE ADMINISTRATIONs East Asia strategy report is a strong, unswerving statement that we will remain engaged in Asia.Unilaterally, we must maintain a bipartisan consensus on our forward presence in East Asia. Bilaterally, we must maintain and strengthen the mutually beneficial security arrangements we have with our allies.Finally, the current East Asia strategy report places a new emphasis on multilateral security dialogues.