c b s s w f d p- s g feb2010（c b s s w f d p - s g feb2010）（9页）.docVIP

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMSOPAG on DPFS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING Exeter, UK, 28 June – 2 July 2010 CBS-DPFS/ET-ELRF /Doc. 5.4 (25.VI.2010) _______ Agenda item : 5.4 ENGLISH ONLY PROVISION OF LONG-RANGE FORECASTS (LRF) Review of observational requirements for LRF, including the Statement of Guidance (SoG) for Seasonal to Inter-Annual (SIA) Forecasts (Submitted by Laura Ferranti, ECMWF) Summary and purpose of document This document provides information on observational requirements for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF), including a revised version of the Statement of Guidance (SoG) for Seasonal to Inter-Annual (SIF) Forecasts arising from the WMO Rolling Review of Requirements (RRR). Action Proposed The meeting is invited to make any comments and recommendations as appropriate to be passed to the chairperson of the CBS Expert Team on Evolution of the Global Observing System (ET-EGOS). Statement of Guidance for Seasonal and Inter-Annual (SIA) forecasts (Point of contact: Laura Ferranti, ECMWF) (Version updated April 2008 by Laura Ferranti, and approved by ET-EGOS-4, July 2008) This Statement of Guidance (SOG) was developed through a process of consultation to document the observational data requirements to support seasonal-to-interannual (SIA) climate prediction. This version was prepared originally by the ET-ODRRGOS with experts from the NWP community, and was subsequently updated in consultation with a number of experts from the climate community through the AOPC and by the CBS ET on Infrastructure for Long-Range Forecasting. It is expected that the statement will be reviewed at appropriate intervals by the OPAG on Data Processing Forecasting Systems to ensure that it remains consistent with the current state of the relevant science and technology. 1 Introduction The physical basis for seasonal and inter-annual climate prediction lies in components of cl