forecastfor s d g e peak time rebate（forecastfor s d舌鳎e峰时间折扣）（8页）.docVIP

Ex Ante Load Impact Forecast For SDGE Peak Time Rebate April 1st 2011 The purpose of this document is to present an updated Peak Time Rebate (PTR) load impact forecast for 2012-2021 for residential customers consistent with the load impact protocols. SDGE’s PTR is not scheduled to begin until 2012 so there is no ex-post load impact data available on the program; however the load impact protocol decision D-08-04-050 requires an ex-ante forecast for future programs using the most up to date information. A forecast for PTR was previously provided in SDGE’s AMI application A-05-03-015 and this forecast was updated to satisfy the requirements of the load impact protocols adopted in decision D-08-04-050 filed April 1st of 2009 and 2010. There are five major assumptions required to compute the expected PTR load reduction from residential customers. 1) the rebate price, 2) the participation rates, 3) the reference load, 4) the meter deployment rate and 5) the elasticities which determine the percent impact per customer when combined with the prices. The rebate price is $0.75 as adopted in SDGE’s GRC phase II decision. In order to avoid double counting with any of the residential technology program such as summer saver and the proposed SCTD program the forecast assumes no customers have enabling technology and therefore no customers receive the higher $1.25 rebate. The participation rate used is 50% which is consistent with the AMI decision D-07-04-043. The average load per customer for the reference is based on SDGE’s dynamic load profile data. The reference load is calculated for the 1 in 2 and 1 in 10 weather years for each monthly system peak day and also for the typical event day as required by the load impact protocols. The meter deployment assumptions and elasticities are discussed in more detail below. The meter deployment plan for the smart meter deployment began in 2009 and as of March 21st 2011 1,194,032 electric AMI meters have