ppt课件-thinningofthe arctic ice declinein arctic sea ice extent（折合年率下降thinningofthe北极冰北极海冰范围）.pptVIP

OCEANS AND GLOBAL CHANGE PROFESSOR A.E. HILL DIRECTOR NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE, SOUTHAMPTON UK GLOBAL CHANGE What does it mean? Ocean-atmosphere-ice system out of normal balance Changes at an unprecedented rate (last 1 M yrs) Why does it matter? Global change impacts Europe Local and regional impacts Impacts on the Global economy The oceans are integral to understanding and predicting changes in the global environment LIVING ON A CHANGING EARTH: THE CHALLENGES FOR SCIENCE What is going on now ? fundamental understanding of basic earth system processes Continuous awareness of change sustained observing What is going to happen next – especially locally ? predictive capability Finding solutions evidence based policy, regulation, technology solutions, innovations to grasp opportunities and minimise risks OCEANS AND GLOBAL CHANGE - HOT TOPICS SEA LEVEL CHANGE OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ARCTIC ICE THINNING MEAN SEA LEVEL CHANGESPast 200+ years observed, next 100 years predicted OCEANS AND GLOBAL CHANGE EXTREME SEA LEVEL EVENTS THAT CAUSES FLOODS COASTAL AREAS AT RISK By 2100 The 1 in 100 year flood level (shown here in red) may become a 1 in 10 year level SEA LEVEL COMMITMENT – living with the consequencesSea level will continue to rise even after CO2 emissions are reduced EUROPEAN SEA LEVEL OBSERVING NETWORK (ESEAS) REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES: THE ABILITY TO PREDICT? NORTHWEST EUROPE STORM SURGE SCENARIOS: Computed change in 50-year surge Range of values -20 to +40cm. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION THE ARCTIC OCEAN: SHRINKING SEA ICE COVER Bad news for Polar Bears ... but also... RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE:  The freshening of Arctic and sub-Polar seas NORTHWEST EUROPE IS WARMER THAN IT SHOULD BE FRESHENING OF HIGH LATITUDE WATERS COULD SLOW SINKINGAND RELEASE OF HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE RAPID CLIMATE CHANGESCIENCE FOR DEVELOPING A LONG TERM OBSERVING SYSTEM FOR ADVANCE WARNIN