ppt课件-2010 north carolina sea- level rise assessment report（2010北卡罗莱纳海-水平评估报告）.pptVIP

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ppt课件-2010 north carolina sea- level rise assessment report（2010北卡罗莱纳海-水平评估报告）.ppt

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Tide gauges show no acceleration Tide gauges show no acceleration Tide gauges show no acceleration Tide gauges show no acceleration Rahmstorf “projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.” (110 years) 2010 NC SLR Assessment Report projects for a 90 year period Errors: Cherry-picked a single, outlier tide station (Duck, NC) Conflated coastal tide gauges with mid-ocean satellite data, creating the illusion of accelerated SLR Used discredited “Rahmstorf 2007” method, and exaggerated even his predictions * * * * * * Sources for the error: Acceleration myth Church White (2006) Confusion: tide gauge vs. satellite data Confirmation Bias Rahmstorf (2007) “the Science Panel believes that the Rahmstorf method is robust and 1.4 meters a reasonable upper limit for projected rise.” [2010 NC SLR AR, p.11] Problem # 4Science Panel Report “In hindsight, the averaging period of 11 years that we used in the 2007 Science paper was too short to determine a robust climate trend…[Stefan Rahmstorfs 2009 mea culpa, on the RealClimate blog ] “It turns out that Rahmstorf has pulled an elaborate practical joke on the Community…” [Steve McIntyre] More on Rahmstorf’s Method here: /rahmstuff Problem # 5Science Panel Report All of the IPCC scandals have been about their exaggeration of global warming and its effects: IPCC “Conservative?” Climategate “Hockey stick” Melting Himalayan glaciers goof Extreme weather events error [1] African crop yield error WWF sourcing scandal “IPCC estimates are conservative…” [2010 NC SLR AR, p.7] Last ? century of anthropogenic CO2 (30% increase) caused no acceleration in SLR. Irrational and unscientific to presume that the next ? century will be different. We’ve done the experiment! Realistic projection for Wilmington and Southport is only about 7” by 2100 (10” for Morehead City, 16” for Duck) 2010 North Carolina Sea-Level Rise Assessment Report A Brief Critique By Dave Burton Member, North Carolina Sea