c g e training materialsfor vulnerabilityand adaptation（c g e培训materialsfor vulnerabilityand适应）.docVIP

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c g e training materialsfor vulnerabilityand adaptation（c g e培训materialsfor vulnerabilityand适应）.doc

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CGE TRAINING MATERIALS FOR VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT Chapter 5: Coastal Resources Contents 5.1 introduction 1 5.2 Drivers of change 3 5.2.1 Sea level 3 5.2.2 Sea level scenarios 4 5.2.3 Changes in storminess and extreme water levels 6 5.2.4 Other oceanic drivers (e.g. wave climate, currents, ocean acidification, sea surface temperature) 8 5.2.5 The El Ni?o/La Ni?a-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 9 5.2.6 Non-climate drivers 11 5.3 Potential Impacts 12 5.3.1 Biophysical impacts 13 5.3.2 Socio-economic impacts 14 5.4 Situation Summary 16 5.5 Methods, Tools and Data Requirements 17 5.5.1 General considerations 17 5.5.2 Screening assessment 18 5.5.3 The Bruun Rule 19 5.5.4 Vulnerability assessment 21 5.5.5 Planning assessment 22 5.5.6 Coastal zone integrated assessment models 24 5.5.7 Risk based assessments: a blended approach 24 5.6 Tools 27 5.7 Data 31 5.8 Adaptation 34 5.8.1 Adaptation 34 5.8.2 Planning 38 5.8.3 Integration 40 5.8.4 Mainstreaming 40 5.8.5 Monitoring and evaluation 41 5.9 References 42 5.10 Further Reading 46 introduction Global sea level rise due to climate change will have a wide range of physical and ecological effects on coastal systems. These include inundation, flood and storm damage, loss of wetlands, erosion, saltwater intrusion and rising water tables. Other effects of climate change, such as higher sea water temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and changes in storm tracks, frequency and intensity, will also affect coastal systems, both directly and through interactions with sea level rise. Rising sea surface temperatures are likely to cause the migration of coastal species toward higher latitudes (especially when linked to increased ocean acidification) and increased coral bleaching. Changes in precipitation and storm patterns will alter the risks of flooding and storm damage. Table 5-1 summarizes some of the main bio-geophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change and sea level rise, and their interac