theclimatedynamicsoftotalsolarvariability.docVIP

Introduction There is abundant evidence and general agreement within the scientific community that solar variability of all types  irradiance, matter, electromagnetic and gravitational force and shape and the interactions between all five  play a key role in the Earth’s climate dynamics. In addition to solar variability, there are four other factors, quite independent of solar variability, for which there is evidence that they, too, play a key role in the Earth’s climate dynamics. One is the production of greenhouse gases (water vapour, Carbon Dioxide and methane) (IPCC 2007). Another is the massive reengineering of the planet over the last three hundred years (Cotton and Pielke 2007). A third is the increase in atmospheric pollution that has occurred at the same time as the reengineering of the planet. Volcanoes and earthquakes have also been shown to affect climate dynamics. The fourth is two key natural processes internal to the climate system. One is the stochastic development of natural systems; the second is the interaction between, or phase synchronisation of, the many oscillating natural systems of which the climate is composed. This paper examines the range and type of climate dynamics arising from total solar variability; it does not address the other factors, except volcanoes and earthquakes to the extent that they might be generated by solar variability. On August 16, 2006 astronomers at the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) facility in the United States reported that Sunspot Cycle No. 24 (SC24) began on July 23, 2006. There is some dispute that SOLIS detected the beginning of SC24. We are currently in period of solar minimum between the end of SC23 and the beginning of SC24, which is now expected to begin sometime between mid 2007 and mid 2008. The amplitude and shape of SC24 could be decisive about the extent to which global warming is the result of total solar variability or human activity. In vi