基于SVM的话务量预测及Matlab实现(二稿)查重2.doc

 基于SVM的话务量预测及Matlab实现 学生：刘竞雄 指导老师：曹华孝 内容摘要：话务量预测技术是通信网络系统设计、规划和优化的重要手段之一，同时也能为电信企业制定营销策略提供决策支持。虽然话务预测的研究已有20多年历史，并形成了一些话务预测方法，但是随着新理论和新技术的发展，对话务预测新方法的研究仍在不断地深入进行。支持向量机作为数据挖掘的一项新技术，应用于模式识别和处理回归问题等诸多领域。 本文利用支持向量机优越的非线性学习及预测性能，针对短期话务预测的各种影响因素的非线性特性，提出基于支持向量机的电信话务量预测新方法，以提高预测精度和时效性，该研究具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。应用模糊聚类分析的基本原理，依据输入样本的相似度选取训练样本，即选用同类特征数据作为预测输入，保证了数据特征的一致性，强化了历史数据规律。在基于支持向量机话务预测之前，先对样本进行模糊聚类分析，选取与预测样本特征相似的样本作为支持向量机的训练样本。本文分析了支持向量机的基本原理，支持向量机具有非线性拟合、泛化能力强、训练收敛速度快等显著特点。数值试验结果表明，支持向量机具有较强的学习能力。 关键词： 支持向量机，模糊聚类，预测模型，高斯核函数  Traffic prediction and Matlab implementation based on SVM Abstract:Traffic forecasting technology is one of important means for network communication system designing, planning and optimization, and it also can provide decision support for telecom enterprise when marketing strategy development. Currently there have been more studies in theory and complemented methods of traffic forecasting and obtained some achievement. New theory and new technology based traffic forecasting researches have been developed continuously. As new technology of data mining, support vector machines(SVM) have been successfully applied in pattern recognition and regression problem,et al.This paper proposes to use its advantages of non-linear processing and generating ability to accomplish short-term traffic forecasting of telecom system, so as to improve forecasting precision. Consequently the study is significant in theory and is valuable in practice.Because of numerous traffic influence factors having a great of complex characteristics, and the pattern, without selecting input vectors, will lead to reduce of the precision and increase of the computering time. Therefore this paper adopts an effective fuzzy clustering analysis and process technology for the traffic data and combines the clustering algorithm with SVM. A new SVM method based on FCM fuzzy clusting algorithm for short-term traffic forecasting is first presente