应用统计课件要点.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 24 This teleology is based on the number of explanatory variables nature of relationship between X Y. * * * * * * * * * * * * Location (Position) Concerned with where values are concentrated. Variation (Dispersion) Concerned with the extent to which values vary. Shape Concerned with extent to which values are symmetrically distributed. * * * * As a result of this class, you will be able to ... * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Location (Position) Concerned with where values are concentrated. Variation (Dispersion) Concerned with the extent to which values vary. Shape Concerned with extent to which values are symmetrically distributed. * * * * * * * * * * * Shape Concerned with extent to which values are symmetrically distributed. Kurtosis The extent to which a distribution is peaked (flatter or taller). For example, a distribution could be more peaked than a normal distribution (still may be 慴ell-shaped). If values are negative, then distribution is less peaked than a normal distribution. Skew The extent to which a distribution is symmetric or has a tail. Values are 0 if normal distribution. If the values are negative, then negative or left-skewed. * * * * * * * * * * 以英国统计学家和数学家 B·Gompertz 而命名 一般形式为 Gompertz 曲线(Gompertz curve) 描述的现象：初期增长缓慢，以后逐渐加快，当达到一定程度后，增长率又逐渐下降，最后接近一条水平线 两端都有渐近线，上渐近线为Y?K,下渐近线为Y=? 0 通常用于描述事物的发展由萌芽、成长到饱和的周期过程。如产品寿命周期、工业生产的增长等。 K、a、b为未知常数 K 0，0 a ≠ 1，0 b ≠ 1 罗吉斯蒂曲线(Logistic curve) 1838年比利时数学家 Verhulst所确定的名称 该曲线所描述的现象的与Gompertz曲线类似 3. 其曲线方程为 K、a、b 为未知常数 K 0，a 0，0 b ≠1 趋势线的选择 观察散点图 根据观察数据本身，按以下标准选择趋势线 一次差大体相同，配合直线 二次差大体相同，配合二次曲线 对数的一次差大体相同，配合指数曲线 一次差的环比值大体相同，配合修正指数曲线 对数一次差的环比值大体相同，配合 Gompertz 曲线 倒数一次差的环比值大体相同，配合Logistic曲线 3. 比较估计标准误差 复合型序列的分解 季节性分析 趋势分析 周期性分析 季节指数(seasonal index) 刻画序列在一个年度内各月或季的典型季节特征 以其平均数等于100%为条件而构成 反映某一月份或季度的数值占全年平均数值的大小 如果现象的发展没有季节变动，则各期的季节指数应等于100% 季节变动的程度是根据各季节指数与其平均数(100%)的偏差程度来测定 如果某一月份或季度有