Developing a CODES General Use ModelGUM开发通用模型胶的代码.pptVIP

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Developing a CODES General Use ModelGUM开发通用模型胶的代码.ppt

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Case Control Study Not Present Present Total Control 1,057 2 1,059 Case 540 0 540 Total 1,0597 2 1,599 Any problems estimating the odds ratio? Could exact logistic regression help? What sufficient statisticsare needed? Not Present (X = 0) Present (X = 1) Total Control (Y = 0) 1,057 2 1,059 Case (Y = 1) 540 0 540 Total 1,597 2 1,599 Sy = 2 Sxy = 0 Conditional Density Case P Case NP Ctrl P Ctrl NP t0 t1 Count P[Table] 0 540 2 1,057 2 0 560,211 0.438 1 539 1 1,058 2 1 571,860 0.448 2 538 0 1,059 2 2 145,530 0.114 2 1,277,601 1.000 One-sided p-value = 0.438 Two-sided p-value = 2*0.438 = 0.876 95% confidence interval (-∞, 2.345) Point estimate? Median Unbiased Estimate One More Example Dose Response Toxicology Experiment 0 1 2 3 Total Lived 99 97 95 90 381 Died 1 3 5 10 19 Total 100 100 100 100 400 400 mice randomized to one of four levels of a drug Drug administered to each animal Outcome is the number of deaths in each dose level Sy = 19 Sxy = 3 + 10 + 30 = 43 Exact vs. Unconditional Exact Estimate = 0.710 SE = 0.246 OR = 2.03 CI = (1.26, 3.52) p-value = 0.002 Unconditional Estimate = 0.712 SE = 0.246 OR = 2.04 CI = (1.26, 3.30) p-value = 0.004 Computational Issues Counting All the Tables One of the main hurdles for conditional logistic regression is counting all the tables in the sample space Graft rejections – 11,440 possibilities PECARN C-Spine - 1,277,601 Toxicology – 2.79 x 1033 Obviously don’t want to generate tables one at a time Network Algorithm Graphical representation of the sample space Nodes represent a partial sum of the sufficient statistic Arcs have combinatorial weighting value One path through the graph represents a table in the sample space Example X = 1 X = 2 X = 3 X = 4 Total Y = 0 3 2 2 1 8 Y = 1 0 1 1 2 4 Total 3 3 3 3 12 Sufficient Statistics t0 = Syi = 4 t1 = Sxiyi = 1*0 + 2*1 + 3*1 + 4*2 = 13 (1,0) (2,0) (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (0,0) (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,4) (1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (2,4) (3,4) X = 1 X = 2 X = 3 X = 4 Total Y = 0 1 3 1 3 8 Y = 1 2 0 2