Economic Growth in China Past and Future中国过去和未来的经济增长.pptVIP

China’s Economic Growth Through 2025: What We Know Today about China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow Carsten A. Holz Hong Kong University of Science Technology 1 September 2009 Official real GDP growth 1978-2008 Literature a. China as next superpower b. China collapse/ pessimist view c. Firm/industry-level growth studies d. Economic growth in the past e. Economic growth in the future Literature a. China as next superpower - China is rising - may pose a threat to the U.S. Geoffrey Murray (1998): The Next Superpower Emma Broomfield (2003): literature review Bill Geertz (2000): The China Threat (2000) Timperlake/ William/ Triplett (2002): Red Dragon Rising: Communist China’s Military Threat to America Business Week (2004): … the devastation Chinese competitors are inflicting on U.S. industries, from kitchenware and car tires to electronic circuit boards… b. China collapse/ pessimist view (1) economic arguments Lester Brown (1995): Who Will Feed China Nicholas Lardy (1998): China’s Unfinished Economic Revolution Gordon Chang (2000): Coming Collapse of China (2) political arguments Ross Terrill (2003): The New Chinese Empire and What It Means for the United States a crash looms because the Leninist core of the regime is unchanged… illusory nature of the market in most of the Chinese economy c. Firm/industry-level growth studies Jefferson et al. (2000): TFP Colin Carter and Scott Rozelle (2001): major force in world food markets? Allen Douglas (2002): 4 industries, imminent emergence of Chinese world-class brands Ming Zeng and Peter Williamson (2003, 2008): “The Hidden Dragons” d. Economic growth in the past (1) Transition literature Wing Thye Woo (1994, 1999) Qian Yingyi (2000, 2003) (2) Development view: Justin Lin et al. (2003): comparative-advantage following strategy (3) Aggregate production function framework Alwyn Young (2000) Gregory Chow and Kui-Wai Li (2002) Wang Yan and Yao Yudong (2003) Wu Yanrui (2004) D