Explaining Cohesion, Fragmentation, and Control in Insurgent解释叛乱的凝聚力分裂和控制.pptVIP

Explaining Cohesion, Fragmentation, and Control in Insurgent解释叛乱的凝聚力分裂和控制.ppt

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* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * What is Cohesion? In this conceptualization, looks at both the structural integrity of the group and the commitment of individual members Not the same as success - can contribute, but is not a sufficient condition for victory Focused on insurgent organizations - not the same as “ethnic group” or “opposition movement” cohesion Overall Distribution of Cases Cohesive PIRA (72-05) LTTE (83-09) Hizb (90-) LeT (87-) State-reliant Ikhwan JKLF (‘88-90) MJF Al Jehad Al-Umar EPRLF (87-90) TELO Jaish (99-01) Harkat (80-99) Consensus-Contingent EPRLF (81-87) PIRA (1969-72) Official IRA (1962-76) LTTE (1972-83) Hizb (‘89) Factionalized INLA JKLF (‘91-96) PLOT Jaish (01-) EROS Ikhwan (95-) IPLO RIRA Harkat (99-) Social Ties Over Ideology “we couldn’t disagree with a word the man [an OIRA representative] said, all his arguments were totally right, totally justified. The Provisionals leadership was reactionary and Catholic, they went against what we believed in. But we just said: ‘Yeah, but what’s my da and ma going to say if I go home and tell them I’m going with the Reds?’ There was a real thing about the communist threat about that time. And family tradition counted for a lot.” Devenport and Sharrock 1997, p. 69. “the success of the Officials in hanging on to the Lower Falls is more a tribute to his [Sullivan’s] personality than to the popularity of his political message.” Bishop and Mallie 1987, p. 146. Guns and Money Over Ideology Northern Ireland Joe Cahill: “they wanted to know if we had guns for them. That was their main concern. . . they would not give up their allegiance to the Official IRA until they were certain they would get weapons.” Anderson 2002, p. 188. PIRA recruit: “I never thought of joining the Stickies [the Official IRA]. I felt that Provies wanted to get the gear and that was

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