中国经济景气监测、预警系统开发计划.pptVIP

The business cycle analysis in China and challenges after the financial crisis  Li Kai, State Information Center, China Content Progress of business cycle analysis in China Challenges in business cycle analysis Chinese BI faces after the financial crisis Progress of business cycle analysis in the China Study on business cycle in China started relatively late, just from late 1980’s. Major providers and publishers include: Central bank, saving customer survey, economist survey and industrial company survey; NBS, survey on industrial and service firms from late 90’s; consumer surveys; Information Center of commerce, PMI based on business survey; NDRC, monthly workshop joined by 7 business cycle analysis providers; SIC, quarterly business survey on 5000 manufactures from 1990s; monthly business cycle analysis from 2004, publish leading and coincident index monthly. Application of business cycle analysis in the China Now, business cycle index are published regularly in China by different agencies on price, investment, consumption, saving, foreign trade and performance of leading industries. Additionally over 30 provinces and cities publish relevant regional business cycle index regularly as well. Basic procedures of composing CI and DI by SIC Key steps in composing index 指标的选取 selection of component indicators 数据的处理 data processing, seasonal adjustment 基准周期的确定 setting up the baseline cycles 景气指数的生成 composition of business cycle indicators 先行、同步和滞后指标（指数）的确定 set up Leading, Coincident and Lagging indicators 景气变动趋势预测 forecast of economic trend 警度的确定 determination of warning criteria Major components of the macro business cycle index by SIC Leading Index Coincident Index 1．financial institutions loans 1. Industrial Added Value (Comparable Price) 2. New project in fixed assets construction 2．Power Generation Production 3. Money supply (M1) 3．Total Volume of Fixed Assets Investment 4. Cash flow by industrial producers 4．Fiscal Revenue 5. Final product inven