衡水地区冬小麦生长后期需水量变化特征.docVIP

衡水地区冬小麦生长后期需水量变化特征 　　摘要：利用衡水市3个气象站1965-2012年的逐日气象数据，采用作物需水量模型以及相关统计方法，分析了近48年来衡水地区冬小麦灌浆期至成熟期需水量的变化特征。结果表明，1965-2012年衡水地区冬小麦生长后期需水量呈波动下降的趋势，趋势变化显著，近48年来下降了37.9 mm，人工灌水量的减少趋势快于需水量的变化，近48年来减少了62.4 mm；需水量存在时间序列上的突变现象，突变发生在1976年，1977年以后变化更加明显；在冬小麦后期需水量波动减少的过程中存在明显的7年变化周期；冬小麦后期生长需水量的变化与日照时数呈最大正相关，与相对湿度的变化呈最大负相关。 　　关键词：冬小麦后期生长；作物需水量模型；变化 　　中图分类号：S162.8；S512.1+1 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2016）14-3546-03 　　DOI：10.14088/ki.issn0439-8114.2016.14.003 　　Abstract：Based on the daily meteorological data of three stations from 1965 to 2012 in Hengshui area， the change characteristics of winter wheat’s water requirement during filling stage to mature stage in 48 years of Hengshui area was analyzed by using the model of crop water requirement and the related statistical methods. The results showed a significant trend of reduction about the water requirement during the later growth stage of winter wheat from 1965 to 2012 in Hengshui area， it had 37.9 mm dropped in the past 48 years，the reduction of artificial irrigation water was more faster， and it had 62.4 mm dropped in the past 48 years. The water requirement existed a jumping phenomenon in the time series of recent 48 years， the time of jumping phenomenon appeared in 1976， and it was more obvious after 1977. In the fluctuating downward process of winter wheat’s water requirement during the later growth stage， it presented a variational period of 7 years. Sunshine time was the most positive correlation about the change of winter wheat’s water requirement during the later growth stage， the relative humidity was the most negative correlation to it. 　　Key words： the later growth stage of winter wheat； the model of crop water requirement； change 　　气候变暖已是不争的事实，政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第五次会议上指出[1]，近130年来地球表面平均温度上升了0.85 ℃，与IPCC第四次评估报告相比[2]，地球表面温度又升高了0.11 ℃。气候的变暖对全球生态系统产生了极大影响，而农业是受气候变化影响最直接的脆弱行业[3-8]。衡水市是农业大市，耕地面积56.7万hm2，农业人口人均占有耕地1 667.5 m2。在衡水市的农业种植结构中，主要以冬小麦-夏玉米轮作结构为主，在其主要作物之一的冬小麦中，其后期生长的抽穗至成熟期是冬小麦子粒灌浆成型的关键期，这段时期内的需水量显得尤为重要。在气候变暖的大背景下