NOAACIRES CDC GOALS诺阿奇雷什CDC的目标.pptVIP

* * Drought Characteristics, Causes and Prediction Randall M. Dole NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center Drought characteristics, Causes and Prediction North Platte river, May 22, 2002 Mean flow: 1310 cu. ft/sec Observed flow: 0 cu. ft/sec. … the last rains came gently, and they did not cut the scarred earth ….the sky grew pale and the clouds that had hung in high puffs for so long in the spring were dissipated. John Steinbeck, Grapes of Wrath. Drought scene Characteristics of the current drought 1. The drought is severe. Precipitation Percentiles - Past 12 months Pinks - 1-2% Reds - 2-5% Orange - 5-10% In parts of the country, this is a 50 to 100 year event. Drought characteristic 1 - Severe 2. This is a long-term, sustained drought. Drought characteristic 2 - sustained Normal Drought Severe Standardized Precipitation Index Northern New Mexico Years 0 1 2 3 4 6 5 In most locations, this is a multi-year drought. 3. This drought is large-scale. Drought characteristic 3 - large scale Over the U.S. Part of a larger global pattern 4. Intensity and impacts are regionally-dependent. Most direct impacts on water supply (and demand), agriculture, fire risk. But manifold indirect impacts as well, e.g., on recreation, energy production, water quality, air quality, species preservation. Drought characteristic 4 - impacts are regional. Drought Causes Are the tropical oceans playing an important role? Evolution of tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures Two key features: Prolonged La Ni?a conditions 1998-2002 Long-term warming of Indian Ocean-west Pacific “warm pool” Drought causes - 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 El Ni?o La Ni?a onset La Ni?a ends La Ni?a Effects on U. S. Precipitation La Nina impacts Observed Departures (Oct. 2001-present) La Ni?a Composite (Oct.-May) La Ni