Options for Developing Countries to Deal with Global Food发展中国家应对全球食品的选择.pptVIP

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Options for Developing Countries to Deal with Global Food发展中国家应对全球食品的选择.ppt

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Options for Developing Countries to Deal with Global Food发展中国家应对全球食品的选择

Food commodity price volatility and food insecurity Alexandros Sarris Professor of economics, University of Athens, Greece Presentation at the International Conference on Applied Biotechnology Research (ICABR) at Ravello, Italy, on June 19, 2013 Plan of presentation Food commodity market volatility and why it matters Volatility risks faced by developing country food importers Policies to manage price volatility Priorities for action by the international community to assist developing countries to deal with continuing food market volatility? Global food commodity price volatility has been unusually high in last five years. World food commodity price index 1990-2011 (FAO) Recent year wheat prices Recent year maize prices Oilseed prices 2005-2012 Cereal commodity prices in long term perspective (current prices) Cereal commodity prices in long term perspective (real prices) Volatility matters for developing countries because of increasing exposure. Medium term OECD-FAO projections of agricultural production and trade LDC Countries (Base 1999-2001 =1) Medium term OECD-FAO projections of agricultural production and trade for other developing countries (non-LDC, non-BRIC) (Base 1999-2001 =1) Cereal import dependence 2007-9 (number of countries with percentage share of imports to total domestic supply in given range) Conceptual issues What matters for market participants is uncertainty, namely ex-ante unpredictability and not ex-post variability Risk is determined by exposure to uncertainty or unpredictability Unpredictability not easily measured, while ex-post variability readily measured Impacts of volatility on DCs large at both micro and macro levels because of large dependence on primary food commodities and credit constraints at both micro and macro levels Has volatility increased? Annualized real historic volatility of selected food commodities 1957-2010 (Source. Prakash 2011) Annualized real historic volatility of selected food commodities 1957-2010 (So